作為一名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，我想為中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策許下新年愿望。

我認(rèn)為中國最首要的目標(biāo)是提高生活水平，實現(xiàn)這個目標(biāo)反過來需要消費盡可能最快速地持續(xù)增長——既保護(hù)環(huán)境又可持續(xù)地增長。這也應(yīng)該是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的目標(biāo)。

但在中國，消費的快速增長這一正確目標(biāo)，常常會和國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中的消費比例快速增長（即消費占GDP比重）相混淆。這是兩個完全不同的概念。不僅在概念上不同，提高消費占GDP比重還必然意味著投資比重的降低以及由此產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)的低速增長。這就意味著消費增速會降低，隨之而來的則是在中長期階段更低的生活水平。

這一基本問題上的混淆是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)政策最直接、最危險的威脅。因此，我的新年愿望是，希望這一混淆得以消除。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的關(guān)鍵目標(biāo)是快速穩(wěn)定的消費增長，這應(yīng)該得到普遍認(rèn)同；而消費占GDP比重的提高從策略上講只會導(dǎo)致更低而非更高的生活水平。

As I am an economist my New Year wish is in economic policy.

The most important goal is that China achieves a high standard of living which in turn requires the most rapid possible sustainable increase in consumption – sustainable both in protecting the environment and capable of being maintained over a long period. This should therefore be the target of economic policy.

But in China the correct goal of a high rate of growth of consumption is frequently confused with the entirely different idea of a high percentage of consumption in GDP. Not only is this a different ideas but raising consumption’s percentage in GDP necessarily means lower investment and therefore lower economic growth. This will mean a less rapid growth of consumption, and therefore lower living standards, over the medium and long term.

This elementary confusion is the most dangerous immediate threat in China’s economic policy. Therefore my New Year wish is that this confusion should be eliminated. It should be universally understood that the key goal in China’s economic policy should be the most rapid possible sustainable consumption increase and raising the percentage of consumption in China’s GDP will strategically result in lower, not higher, living standards.