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<span>來源：觀察者網(wǎng)</span> <span id="6pdjcrk" class="postpage-view"></span> </div> <div id="1vbqjir" class="time fix" style="padding:0"><span>最后更新: 2023-04-06 14:10:31</span></div> <div id="a1ayibk" class="content all-txt"> <p> 【文/觀察者網(wǎng)科工力量專欄特約作者 余鵬鯤】 </p> <p> 3月31日，華為發(fā)布了《華為2022 年年度報告》。報告顯示：2022年華為的銷售收入折合6423億人民幣同比增長僅有0.9%，凈利潤折合356億元人民幣同比下滑了68.7%。 </p> <p> 對于被寄予厚望的華為而言，這樣的成績難言好看，同時也意味著2021年華為的銷售收入滑坡后，高利潤率也沒能保住。對于一家非上市企業(yè)，收入和利潤率均表現(xiàn)不振是致命的，因此報告一出就有人驚呼：“華為的日子不好過！” </p> <p align="center"> <img src="https://i.guancha.cn/news/internet/2023/04/05/20230405171559518.png" title="點擊查看大圖" class="bigimg" width="530"> </p> <p align="center"> <span style="color:#666666;">華為五年財務概要</span> </p> <p> 毫無疑問，席卷全球的經(jīng)濟衰退以及空前惡劣的國際環(huán)境，正在沖擊著這家中國企業(yè)。從樸素的民族感情出發(fā)，沒人希望華為衰落下去。那么，華為現(xiàn)在都面臨著哪些困難呢？ </p> <p> <strong>中國和華為都低估了制裁的影響</strong> </p> <p> 自從美國總統(tǒng)特朗普發(fā)動貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)以來，在歐美市場表現(xiàn)突出的中國頭部企業(yè)都受到不同程度的打壓和制裁，中興被迫屈辱的出售，Tiktok則幾度面臨被封殺的危機。 </p> <p> 2020年8月開始，華為遭到了美國政府無恥的封鎖和打壓，理論上無法進口任何含有美國技術的工業(yè)品。由于華為居安思危而且應對得當，2020年和2021年的表現(xiàn)依然亮眼，著實讓不少關心華為命運的人松了一口氣。但從長期來看，封鎖帶來的打擊將會逐步顯現(xiàn)，絕不能低估。 </p> <p> 以消費者業(yè)務為例，華為過去實行的是“榮耀+華為”的雙品牌戰(zhàn)略。由榮耀布局中低端業(yè)務，保證了總出貨量，進而攤低了自研麒麟芯片的成本。同時榮耀也成為華為新技術和新商業(yè)模式的試驗田，保證了華為產(chǎn)品迭代既快速又穩(wěn)定。 </p> <p> 為了實現(xiàn)華為和中國利益的最大化，2020年11月華為不得不整體出售了榮耀的業(yè)務資產(chǎn)。不再占有榮耀的任何股份，也不參與榮耀的經(jīng)營管理。華為此舉保護了榮耀的品牌價值，減少了對產(chǎn)業(yè)上下游的沖擊，同時也有利于集中精力維持華為擅長的領域。但代價就是華為不得不面臨著更高的成本和更小的市場。 </p> <p align="center"> <img src="https://i.guancha.cn/news/internet/2023/04/05/20230405171724239.png" title="點擊查看大圖" class="bigimg" width="530"> </p> <p align="center"> <span style="color:#666666;">華為與榮耀分家并出售的聲明</span> </p> <p> 根據(jù)counterpoint數(shù)據(jù)，華為在2019年第1季度的智能手機全球出貨量份額達到歷史最高，占全球的17%。制裁從2019年第2季度開始產(chǎn)生了消極影響，并使得華為的海外市場份額持續(xù)下滑。雖然，其出貨量在2020年第二季度超過三星成為世界第一，但沒有改變海外市場增長下滑的頹勢。 </p> <p align="center"> <img src="https://i.guancha.cn/news/internet/2023/04/05/20230405171821801.png" title="點擊查看大圖" class="bigimg" width="530"> </p> <p align="center"> <img src="https://i.guancha.cn/news/internet/2023/04/05/20230405171901959.png" title="點擊查看大圖" class="bigimg" width="530"> </p> <p align="center"> <span style="color:#666666;">2020年2季度，華為手機出貨量首次超過三星，位居世界第一</span> </p> <p align="center"> <span style="color:#666666;"><img src="https://i.guancha.cn/news/internet/2023/04/05/20230405172149928.png" title="點擊查看大圖" class="bigimg" width="530"><br> </span> </p> <p align="center"> <span style="color:#666666;">第四季度全球智能手機出貨量市場份額排名<br> </span> </p> <p> 面對制裁，華為之所以沒有直接衰落，在于提前做了一些準備。華為的“備胎計劃”曾被新聞聯(lián)播稱贊：“顯示出其居安思危的戰(zhàn)略遠見、未雨綢繆的底線思維，以及堅忍不拔、攻堅克難的奮斗豪情。中國企業(yè)與中國企業(yè)家的這種精神，正是中國不斷攀登科技高峰的力量所在”。 </p> <p> 然而無論是華為還是中國，都低估了帝國主義的陰險和奸詐，在部分領域高估了自身應對“極限施壓”的能力。 </p> <p> 以麒麟為代表的自研芯片，依然是購買ARM公版設計自行優(yōu)化的結果，加之受制于ARM指令集強制兼容的生態(tài)，自研卻不自主。以鴻蒙為主的操作系統(tǒng)，依然要對接其他系統(tǒng)例如安卓的接口，開發(fā)成本存在先天劣勢，生態(tài)培育極為艱難。 </p> <p> 華為遇到的問題說明：自主產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈是一個整體，不存在軟硬件分開走路能走通的情況。同時，美國不可能只制裁一個企業(yè)的銷售端而不制裁生產(chǎn)端，因此單獨一個企業(yè)不可能完全應對美國的制裁。2020年9月時任榮耀董事長余承東曾直言“因為沒有中國芯片制造業(yè)能支持，面臨著沒有芯片可用的問題”。 </p> <p> 整個事件最大的教訓是：不要對美國抱有不切實際的幻想，總想著美國的制裁會留口氣，或者只限制最先進的N代產(chǎn)品或N-1代。華為的“備用方案”之所以作用有限，低估了制裁的力度和決心是一個重要的方面。 </p> <p align="center"> <img src="https://i.guancha.cn/news/internet/2023/04/05/20230405172243980.png" title="點擊查看大圖" class="bigimg" width="530"> </p> <p align="center"> <span style="color:#666666;">白宮的“華為之籠”（圖片來源：開源中國</span><span style="color:#666666;">）</span> </p> <p> 根據(jù)《人民日報》的報道，近期，華為芯片設計EDA工具團隊聯(lián)合國內EDA企業(yè)，共同打造了14nm以上工藝所需EDA工具，基本實現(xiàn)了14nm以上EDA工具國產(chǎn)化，2023年將完成對其全面驗證。 </p> <p> 華為輪值董事長徐直軍介紹稱：“EDA本身極其復雜，對于實現(xiàn)芯片自主化具有非常重大的意義。實現(xiàn)了EDA工具自主化，就能夠基本達成半導體自主化的先決條件”。 </p> <p> 然而華為2018年才布局EDA工具，直接導致制裁后缺乏EDA工具，獨立設計芯片的能力受到限制。 </p> </div> <div id="ehmbven" class="fix"> <div id="buying5" class="module-page module-page-right"> <span href="/yupengkun/2023_04_06_687155_1.shtml" class="active">1</span> <a 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