2月10日，美國(guó)《赫芬頓郵報(bào)》新聞評(píng)論網(wǎng)站《世界郵報(bào)》（World Post）發(fā)表世界銀行前副行長(zhǎng)兼首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家林毅夫文章《未來(lái)二十年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的大方向》（觀察者網(wǎng)供稿）。這是該網(wǎng)站繼創(chuàng)刊號(hào)刊登國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平專訪（專訪作者合著《智慧治理》已由觀察者網(wǎng)翻譯出版）；1月28日刊載觀察者網(wǎng)供稿《閻學(xué)通：中國(guó)新外交政策——區(qū)別對(duì)待敵友》，分析中國(guó)外交政策；以及10日發(fā)表觀察者網(wǎng)專欄作家張維為文章《中國(guó)的底線必須得到尊重》，討論中國(guó)國(guó)家安全政策之后，刊文對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)和發(fā)展方向作出評(píng)估。以下為林毅夫文章：

《赫芬頓郵報(bào)》刊載觀察者網(wǎng)供文

2013年11月，在對(duì)重大經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的一片呼聲中，中共召開了十八屆三中全會(huì)。此前，許多分析者和評(píng)論家們宣稱，由于體制問(wèn)題，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在走向停滯，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)如果不進(jìn)行根本性的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，增長(zhǎng)必將急劇滑坡。此外，增長(zhǎng)速度的減緩將使貧富差距等社會(huì)問(wèn)題更加突出，進(jìn)而危及中國(guó)的政治穩(wěn)定。他們錯(cuò)誤判斷了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)狀和軌跡。其實(shí)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)步履穩(wěn)健，在未來(lái)十到十五年甚至更久的時(shí)期內(nèi)，中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）將保持8%的年增長(zhǎng)率。本屆三中全會(huì)啟動(dòng)了大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的計(jì)劃，其實(shí)質(zhì)是進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，避免下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；而不是拯救處在大災(zāi)難邊緣的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。

毋庸諱言，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)近期確實(shí)出現(xiàn)明顯減緩。從2010年第一季度到2013年第二季度，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)連續(xù)13個(gè)季度出現(xiàn)減速，增長(zhǎng)率從接近11%直降到7.5%。這是中國(guó)自1979年改革開放以來(lái)持續(xù)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的增長(zhǎng)減速。但是，造成中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的根本原因不在中國(guó)內(nèi)部，而來(lái)自國(guó)際金融經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)帶來(lái)的全球性沖擊。只需將中國(guó)與其他新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體作比較分析，即可得出更全面的結(jié)論。巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度從2010年的7.5%一路下滑，到2011年跌到2.7%，2012年僅為0.9%；同期內(nèi)，韓國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)從6.3%跌到3.7%，再降至2.0%；臺(tái)灣經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)從10.7%跌到4.1%，再降至1.3%；新加坡經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也從10.8%跌倒5.0%，再降至1.3%。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的巨大壓力之下，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的表現(xiàn)差強(qiáng)人意——中國(guó)2010年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為10.4%，到2011年下滑為9.3%，2012年降到7.8%。

沒(méi)有任何國(guó)家能永遠(yuǎn)保持兩位數(shù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率。中國(guó)以這個(gè)速度持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)了二十年，不管按什么標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)看都堪稱經(jīng)濟(jì)奇跡。我們有充分的理由相信，只要保持當(dāng)前方向不變，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)還能將10%以下的高位增長(zhǎng)再保持一代人的時(shí)間。

在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)，中國(guó)仍有足夠的空間繼續(xù)利用其作為發(fā)展中國(guó)家與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的差距，來(lái)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)在于，能夠引進(jìn)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家成熟技術(shù)與先進(jìn)的工業(yè)實(shí)踐，以較小的成本與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)取得高速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以后至今，有13個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體利用后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)，將年均7%或更高的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速維持了25年或更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。中國(guó)便是這13個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中規(guī)模最大的一個(gè)。有人說(shuō)，在當(dāng)前的發(fā)展模式下，中國(guó)的潛力已經(jīng)告罄——這顯然是對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的誤判。

一個(gè)國(guó)家的人均收入水平很好地反映出該國(guó)的平均勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)力，其背后反映的是該國(guó)平均技術(shù)水平與產(chǎn)業(yè)水平。根據(jù)著名經(jīng)濟(jì)歷史學(xué)家安格斯•麥迪森的估算，2008年時(shí)中國(guó)人均收入水平（按購(gòu)買力平價(jià)計(jì)算），僅相當(dāng)于美國(guó)當(dāng)年水平的21%。中美兩國(guó)人均收入的差距，相當(dāng)于日本與美國(guó)在1951年時(shí)；新加坡與美國(guó)在1967年時(shí)；臺(tái)灣與美國(guó)在1975年時(shí)；以及韓國(guó)與美國(guó)在1977年時(shí)的差距水平。利用技術(shù)差距帶來(lái)的巨大潛力，這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體都將7.6%至9.2%的高速年增長(zhǎng)維持了二十年。

1978年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)剛起步時(shí)，人均收入只有154美元，連普通非洲國(guó)家人均收入水平的三分之一都不到。到2012年，中國(guó)人均收入達(dá)6100美元，已步入上中等收入國(guó)家行列。但中國(guó)目前的人均收入水平與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家間的差距，仍然只相當(dāng)于日本、韓國(guó)幾十年前的水平。未來(lái)中國(guó)可以進(jìn)一步利用后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)，繼續(xù)縮小差距，將8%左右的增長(zhǎng)速度再保持一二十年。

中國(guó)健康的財(cái)政狀況進(jìn)一步為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提供了保證。近期，許多媒體對(duì)中國(guó)地方政府過(guò)高的債務(wù)杠桿提出了嚴(yán)重警告。毋庸諱言，問(wèn)題確實(shí)是存在的，但這些警告往往過(guò)于危言聳聽(tīng)。中國(guó)中央政府債務(wù)占GDP的14.9%，地方政府債務(wù)總額為17.9萬(wàn)億人民幣，中央與地方債務(wù)之和仍低于GDP的50%。相比之下，日本的政府債務(wù)為GDP的240%，多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的政府債務(wù)也都超過(guò)了GDP的100%。另外，多數(shù)國(guó)家舉債主要是為了支持消費(fèi)，這部分負(fù)債是真正的負(fù)債。中國(guó)的政府債務(wù)絕大部分用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資。這兩種債務(wù)的本質(zhì)完全不同，何況中國(guó)政府還有3.8萬(wàn)億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備。除政府財(cái)政狀況良好外，中國(guó)的個(gè)人儲(chǔ)蓄率超過(guò)GDP的50%，排在世界前列。有如此穩(wěn)健資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，中國(guó)利用財(cái)政政策做反周期性刺激的能力，可以說(shuō)非常強(qiáng)大。

三中全會(huì)發(fā)布了一系列積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革規(guī)劃：市場(chǎng)將在資源配置上繼續(xù)扮演重要角色；私有經(jīng)濟(jì)將獲得更多發(fā)展和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的空間；金融業(yè)也將逐步自由化。受這些改革措施的推動(dòng)，我相信中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)還有巨大的潛力，能將8%的年增長(zhǎng)率至少再保持一二十年。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)只需將年增長(zhǎng)率保持在7.3%，即可在2020年實(shí)現(xiàn)人均收入翻番的目標(biāo)，并成為高收入國(guó)家。未來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)速度將大大超過(guò)這個(gè)水平。第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以后，只有韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體實(shí)現(xiàn)了由低收入國(guó)家變?yōu)楦呤杖雵?guó)家的飛躍。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)龐大的規(guī)模，意味著中國(guó)的飛躍將是一項(xiàng)更加偉大的成就。 林毅夫是世界銀行前任首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家及高級(jí)副行長(zhǎng)。

（觀察者網(wǎng)楊晗軼/譯。翻頁(yè)請(qǐng)看英文原文）

Western Analysts Are Wrong: China's Economy is Going Strong

BEIJING -- The Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party's 18th Congress took place in November 2013 amid widespread calls for drastic economic reforms. Many analysts and commentators claim that the Chinese economy is stalling because of systemic problems and, therefore, nothing short of fundamental structural changes can save it from a precipitous downward spiral in growth rate.

Furthermore, many have suggested, slowing growth will exacerbate social problems such as the wealth gap and lead to political instability.

They are misjudging the state of the Chinese economy and its trajectory. China is actually on course to achieving 8 percent annual GDP growth for the next 10 to 15 years or longer. The sweeping economic reform agenda announced at the recent plenum was designed to further propel this growth and cover potential downside risks, not to save the economy from impending catastrophe.

To be sure, the growth rate has been slowing significantly in recent months. Since the first quarter of 2010, growth has been decelerating for 13 straight quarters from near double digits to 7.5 percent in the second quarter 2013. This has been the most sustained period of deceleration in growth since the start of economic reforms in 1979. However, the underlying causes for this slowdown are global, not China specific.

A survey of emerging economies around the world could help clarify the picture. Brazil saw its growth rate drop from 7.5 percent in 2010 to 2.7 percent in 2011 and 0.9 percent in 2012. During the same period, India's growth rate went from 10.5 percent to 6.3 percent and 2.2 percent; South Korea from 6.3 percent to 3.7 percent and 2.0 percent; Taiwan from 10.7 percent to 4.1 percent and 1.3 percent; and Singapore from 10.8 percent to 5.0 percent and 1.3 percent. Pressured by the same global downward forces, China actually did not fare as badly, its growth rate dropping from 10.4 percent to 9.3 percent and 7.8 percent.

No country can sustain a double-digit growth rate indefinitely. China has done so for the past two decades -- a very long stretch by any standard. There are strong reasons to believe the Chinese economy, on its current course, can still deliver a high single-digit growth rate for another generation.

As a developing country, China has sufficient room to continue to use its gap with developed countries to drive its economic growth in the foreseeable future.

As a general rule, developing economies can take advantage of mature technologies and industrial practices in rich nations to generate high growth at lower costs and risks compared to developed economies. Post World War II, 13 such economies achieved higher than a 7 percent annual growth rate for longer than 25 years, of which China is no doubt the largest. Some say that China has already exhausted the potential of this model of development. But such an assessment is incorrect.

The gap in technology and industrial value-add can be measured by average labor productivity, which is in turn best reflected in average income per capita. According to data compiled by economist Angus Maddison, in 2008, China's per capita income measured by purchasing power parity (PPT) was only 21 percent that of the United States'. This gap was equivalent to that between the U.S. and Japan in 1951, Singapore in 1967, Taiwan in 1975, and South Korea in 1977. Driven by this gap, all of these countries grew by high single-digit growth for more than two decades.

The first phase of China's catch-up game took the country from income per capita of U.S. $154 in 1978, only one third of an average African country at that time, to U.S. $6,100 in 2012 -- a higher middle-income country. But it is still at the level of the likes of Japan and South Korea decades ago. China can continue to take advantage of this gap to grow at an approximately 8 percent annual rate for one to two decades.

China's healthy fiscal conditions provide further assurances. Many media reports of late have sounded dire warnings about overleverage, particularly by local governments. No doubt, problems exist. But such concerns are often overstated.

Chinese central government's debt is at 14.9 percent of GDP. Local government debts total 10 trillion RMB -- 19.2 percent of GDP. Even the most pessimistic estimates put local government debts at total of 17 trillion RMB. So, combined government debts are at 34.7 percent to 47.6 percent of GDP.

In comparison, Japan is at 240 percent. Most developed countries debts are above 100 percent of GDP. Furthermore, most nations' debts is used largely to finance consumption and is, in other words, real borrowings. A vast majority of China's government debts are used to finance investments in infrastructure. The two are qualitatively different.

On top of that, the government also has 3.7 trillion U.S. dollars in its foreign reserve coffer. In addition to the government's strong fiscal position, China's personal savings rate is over 50 percent of GDP, among the highest in the world. With this balance sheet, China's ability to implement counter cyclical measures in times of need is exceptionally strong.

The Third Plenum announced aggressive economic reform initiatives. The market will continue to increase its role in resource allocations. The private sector will be given more room to grow and compete. The financial sector will be liberalized.

This growth enabled by these reforms will be substantially higher than the 6.8 percent required to reach the government's goal of doubling income per capita by 2020, leading China to join the ranks of high-income nations.

Post World War II, only two economies, South Korea and Taiwan, have managed to leap from low-income to high-income status. Since China is many times bigger, that would be an extraordinary accomplishment indeed.